This Week in Golf -- January 26th through January 29th

Golf Betting Lines

01/23/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PGA TOUR - FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN - Torrey Pines (North and South Courses), La Jolla, California - The PGA Tour heads to beautiful Torrey Pines this week.

This event used to signal the start of Tiger Woods' PGA Tour campaign, but more on that later.

Phil Mickelson, a three-time winner, is on hand fresh off his uninspiring tie for 49th at the Humana Challenge. He was involved in last year's thrilling finish.

With Mickelson two behind, but in the 17th fairway, Bubba Watson waited to tee off on the par-five 18th hole at the South Course at Torrey Pines. It was a wise move by Watson. Mickelson knocked his approach to four feet, so Watson waited for the gallery to settle before he hammered one down the 18th.

Mickelson holed his birdie putt to get into a tie for second with Jhonattan Vegas, the PGA Tour rookie who won the Humana the week before. Vegas was first to hit in the 18th fairway, but his approach sank just short of the green into the water.

Watson short-sided himself in a greenside bunker and that was no guarantee of an up-and-down birdie. Mickelson popped up his drive into the left rough, but still had enough to get home in two.

Watson played his bunker shot well left of the flagstick. The ball rolled down to 12 feet, but it was far from a gimme birdie.

Mickelson made a curious decision. Instead of waiting for Watson to putt, which would have let Mickelson know if he needed eagle or just birdie to tie, Mickelson laid up in the fairway.

Watson poured in his birdie shot to sign for his 67 and move two in front of Mickelson. Vegas bogeyed 18 to get in at 13-under, so it was down to Mickelson, a man known for his gambling style and interesting theater.

Knowing he needed to hole out for eagle, Mickelson sent his caddie "Bone" the 72 yards to the hole to tend the flag in case his ball flirted with the hole.

His pitch landed just long of the cup and began to spin back, but it was not enough. Mickelson's approach stayed above ground and that gave Watson the title.

Watson is back to defend and Ernie Els, Ryo Ishikawa and Rickie Fowler are making their season debuts on the PGA Tour.

Golf Channel has the action for the first two rounds, then CBS takes over on the weekend.

Next week is traditional event opposite the Super Bowl, the Phoenix Open, which was won last year by Wilson.

EUROPEAN TOUR

ABU DHABI HSBC GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP - Abu Dhabi Golf Course, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates - There is quite a formidable field scheduled for Abu Dhabi this week.

Tiger Woods will make his 2012 debut after his victory at the end of last season at the unofficial Chevron World Challenge. He is 25th in the world rankings, so he is way behind some of the others in the field.

Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer will open their seasons this week. The four are the four highest-ranked players in the world, adding some serious star power to the European Tour's event.

Kaymer has to be considered the favorite and can make history this week. Kaymer is the two-time defending champion and earned his first European Tour victory at this tournament in 2008. The one year he didn't win from 2008-2011, he tied for second in 2009.

Kaymer can join a select group of European Tour players who have won the same tournament four times.

Kaymer cruised to an eight-stroke win last year and set a new tournament scoring record, finishing at 24-under-par 264 to break the old mark by three shots. The victory 12 months ago moved Kaymer to No. 2 in the world rankings, dropping Woods to three. Kaymer eventually became the world's best.

Masters winner Charl Schwartzel and British Open Champion Darren Clarke are both in the field. With reigning U.S. Open winner McIlroy also playing, PGA Champion Keegan Bradley is last year's only major winner not in this week's field.

Kaymer deserves to be the favorite based on his pedigree at the Abu Dhabi Championship, but the hottest player in the world will also tee it up Thursday.

Branden Grace won for the second week in a row last week at the Volvo Golf Champions event. After his breakthrough victory at the Joburg Open, Grace topped two of his fellow countrymen, Els and Goosen, in a playoff at Fancourt.

Golf Channel will carry the action all four rounds.

Next up for the European Tour is the Qatar Masters, which was won last year by Thomas Bjorn. Hunter Mahan, K.J. Choi and Jason Day are scheduled to play as well.

Thekiwicasino Golf Betting News

<< Gotze still out for Dortmund
Dortmund, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Borussia Dortmund midfielder Mario Gotze will remain out of the lineup for Saturday's match with Hoffenheim because of a thigh injury. Gotze had been struggling with an adductor injury which kept him

<< Rookies Newton, Dalton among Pro Bowl replacements
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie quarterbacks Cam Newton of Carolina and Andy Dalton of Cincinnati were among the players selected for this week's Pro Bowl as replacements for those originally selected from the Super Bowl partici

<< Leroux nets five goals as USA hammers Guatemala
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sydney Leroux scored five goals and Abby Wambach added two more as the United States women's national team coasted to a 13-0 win over Guatemala in Group B play at the CONCACAF Olympic qualifying tournam

<< Alonso helps Toluca edge Tigres
Toluca, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ivan Alonso notched his fourth goal of the Mexican Clausura season to help Toluca claim a 2-1 win over Tigres on Sunday. Chilean striker Hector Mancilla gave Tigres the lead from the penalty spot in the 2

<< Jackets activate Umberger off IR
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Blue Jackets have activated forward R.J. Umberger off injured reserve. Umberger had missed five games because of an upper body injury, believed to be concussion-like symptoms. He took an elb

Lovren signs new Lyon contract >>
Lyon, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lyon defender Dejan Lovren signed a two-year contract extension with the club, it was announced on Monday. Lovren still had more than two years remaining on his existing deal, but has now committed himself

Stars lock up D Goligoski with four-year extension >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Stars on Monday signed defenseman Alex Goligoski to a four-year contract extension worth $18.4 million. Goligoski was set to be a restricted free agent at the end of this season. "Alex Goligosk

Marseille loses Mbia to thigh injury >>
Marseille, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marseille is set to be without defender Stephane Mbia for the next two or three weeks after he sustained a thigh injury in the club's 3-1 Coupe de France win over Le Havre. Mbia was forced out o

Van Buyten sidelined by broken foot >>
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich defender Daniel Van Buyten is facing a spell on the sidelines after it was confirmed that he sustained a metatarsal fracture in his left foot. Van Buyten suffered the injury in Friday's 3

Stampeders cut ties with franchise rushing leader Reynolds >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unable to find a trading partner, the Calgary Stampeders have released running back Joffrey Reynolds. The 32-year-old Reynolds played eight seasons with the Stampeders and became the franchise's all-time

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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