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01/30/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (The Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Every year around this time I harp on how folks should not wager on a touchdown being the first score of the Super Bowl.
Even though Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson hooked up for a TD pass for the first points in last year's game, a field goal or safety has been the initial score in eight of the last 13 Super Bowls. That means gamblers wagering on a touchdown at almost 2-1 odds (-180) are putting their money on a side that has failed 62% of the time since 1999.
In fact, a field goal or safety has come through in three of this year's five playoff matchups involving New York and New England. Furthermore, Lawrence Tynes' 22-yard field goal early in the third quarter was the first score when these two teams met earlier this season, and his 32-yarder opened the scoring in Super Bowl XLII.
Given all that information, the first prop bet for this year's contest is a field goal or safety as the first score of the game at +150.
I also do not advise people to bet on heavily favored lines but there is one that cannot be avoided and that is taking "passing play" as the first 1st down of the game at -180. With the number of passing attempts expected to take place, especially early on, it's almost a given for this one to ring true.
The last eight Super Bowl MVP's have been either quarterbacks (five) or wide receivers (three) and the two quarterbacks in this game have already won the award with Tom Brady capturing it on two occasions. Only Joe Montana has won it three times.
Brady, as expected, is the favorite at 13-10 odds. Eli Manning is second at 9-4. Although receivers have gained MVP honors 38% of the time since 2004, look for either Brady or Manning to walk off with the trophy, particularly since two of New England's top three pass-catchers are tight ends and it will also be difficult to separate Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz since both have come through in the clutch multiple times this year. (If I had to choose one receiver to snag the award it would be Nicks at 14-1.)
The play here is Manning at the generous odds of 9-4. Remember, he has beaten the Pats two of the last three meetings, and he was awarded the trophy in Super Bowl XLII despite a 56% completion percentage and only 255 yards passing.
Manning has raised his game to another level this year so expect him to outperform those numbers this time around. In addition, New England's current pass defense is a thousand times worse than it was back in 2007. The Patriots finished sixth in the entire NFL that year allowing just 190 yards per game. This season they ranked 31st giving up 294 passing yards per game.
Even though I feel Manning will have a huge game, his posted passing yard total of 310.5 is way too high. For those who believe all the Giants will do on offense is throw the ball, think again. New England's run defense allowed the opposition 4.6 yards per carry this season, good for 14th in the AFC. In order for New York to maintain possession and keep Brady and company off the field, its ground attack must be effective.
In Manning's last three appearances against the Pats, he threw for an average of 250 yards per game, with 255 being the highest total. That number should improve in the Super Bowl but to jump from 250 (or 255) all the way to 311 is asking a lot.
Take under 310.5 at even money.
TOM BRADY AND THE PATRIOTS
Staying with the quarterbacks, another posted number that caught my eye concerns Tom Brady. His total passing attempts is listed at 39.5, with the over and under both at -115.
Brady has thrown 49, 48, and 42 passes the last three matchups against the Giants so it seems as if 39.5 is a tad low, especially when the over and under are equally priced at -115.
Go with over 39.5 at -115 since New York's pass defense is not that effective. The Giants finished 29th in the NFL against the pass allowing 255 yards per game. They also were 12th in the NFC in attempts allowed per game.
Sticking with all the above information, take Brady to have more attempts and completions than Manning. Surprisingly, the odds are not extremely high in either category at (-1/2) -125 and (-1) -115, respectively.
Another solid play concerns wide receiver Wes Welker. The Oklahoma native has had six receptions in each of the last three games. However, he had nine when facing New York earlier this year and 11 in Super Bowl XLII. The odds are a little steep for my liking but Welker should have a big game.
Take over 6.5 receptions at -140.
TV VIEWERSHIP
Last year's Super Bowl became the most watched telecast in television history with over 111 million viewers. The posted total for this year's game is 117 million viewers with the over at -140 and the under at even money.
Go with the under since the overall viewer total has gone up over six million from one year to the next just one time since 1997.
<< Clippers rally past Nuggets
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chauncey Billups scored a season-high 32 points
as the Los Angeles Clippers rallied in the fourth quarter to take a 109-105
victory over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.
Chris Paul added 25 points, six rebound
<< Morgan leads U.S. over Canada in CONCACAF final
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Morgan scored twice and set up two goals
for Abby Wambach, leading the U.S. women's national team to an easy 4-0 win on
Sunday over Canada in the final of the CONCACAF Olympic qualifying tournament.
The
<< Lakers continue dominance over T'Wolves
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant scored 35 points and pulled
down 14 rebounds, as the Los Angeles Lakers recorded their 16th straight
victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 106-101 decision.
Pau Gasol added 2
<< Mavericks sneak past Spurs in OT
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Mavericks squandered an 18-point
third-quarter lead, but Jason Terry scored four of his 34 points in overtime
to lead the Mavericks to a 101-100 victory over the San Antonio Spurs at
America
Santos downs Tijuana to take Clausura lead >>
Tijuana, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cristian Suarez and Juan Rodriguez scored
in the second half as Santos downed Tijuana, 3-1, on Sunday to move into sole
possession of first place in Mexico's Clausura.
Santos entered the week level on po
Missouri visits Texas in pivotal Big 12 affair >>
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Missouri Tigers and Texas Longhorns square
off for the second time this season, when the two meet in a Big 12 Conference
clash tonight in Austin.
Missouri is an impressive 19-2 on the season, and both losses
Heat finish homestand against hapless Hornets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat are coming off a big win over Chicago and
hope that they can keep the momentum going tonight versus the New Orleans
Hornets in the finale of a three-game homestand.
In what could have been an early playoff p
Lowly Pistons resume road trip in Milwaukee >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The lowly Detroit Pistons will resume a four-game road trip
tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center.
Detroit opened the trek with Saturday's 95-74 loss at Philadelphia, as Greg
Monroe chipped in 16 points
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Many fans thought it was the best side in the nation by the end of last season. This year, the polls have built on Georgia's momentum and granted it the No. 1 preseason ranking, followed by Ohio State and USC. (The Associated Press has the Buckeyes at No. 2; USA Today took the Trojans.)
"To have people believing we have one of the best teams in the nation going into this thing, it's exciting for us," Bulldogs coach Mark Richt told the AP. "I don't think anything is guaranteed, but we certainly have put ourselves in position where at least the college football world thinks we're pretty good."
Georgia Bulldogs - 9.5 wins
There's no question they're good, but the Bulldogs have one of the toughest 12-game schedules in the nation, mostly because they play in the powerhouse Southeastern Conference. Away games at No. 15 Arizona State, No. 7 LSU and No. 10 Auburn loom large, with contests between the hedges versus No. 24 Alabama and No. 18 Tennessee as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville versus No.5 Florida.
Ohio State Buckeyes - 10 wins
Like the Bulldogs, the Buckeyes also have a number of tough road contests in 2008. After two scrimmages dressed up as real games versus Youngstown State and Ohio, it's off to face USC. Other tough away games include No.13 Wisconsin in October and No. 20 Illinois in November. Granted, it should be pretty easy sledding at the Horseshoe. In fact, the only ranked team that travels to Columbus is No. 22 Penn State, in October.
USC Trojans - 10.5 wins
A similarly light schedule awaits the Trojans of Southern California, which is why the oddsmakers' total is one win more and the over is currently commanding -150 odds. Pete Carroll's troops only play three ranked teams in 2008, and all of those games are at home. After what should be an easy trip to Virginia to start things off on Aug. 30, the Trojans get two weeks to prepare for Ohio State in Los Angeles. Their two other ranked opponents, No. 21 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona State, visit in consecutive weeks to start the month of October. After that, the competition eases up. Of course, this is the same highly-touted school that lost to Stanford in 2007 and Oregon State in 2006. And don't discount the fact that USC plays its biggest rivals, Notre Dame and UCLA, back-to-back to close out the regular season. On paper, the Trojans are far superior, but motivation will be high for the Irish and Bruins, especially if their historic foes are in national-title contention.
Odds to Win the Heisman Trophy
Tim Tebow, Florida - 7/2
He won it last year, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to do it again, making him just the second player to go back-to-back. Ohio State's Archie Griffin turned the trick in 1974 and 1975, and Tebow's coach, Urban Meyer, is pretty sure his star quarterback can match the Buckeyes legend.
"There has never been anyone quite like him," Meyer told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "I am very lucky to be his coach."
Chris Wells, Ohio State - 5/1
The man they call "Beanie" was a star recruit out of high school, so it's not like nobody knew who the star tailback was before he rushed for 576 yards as a freshman in 2006 and 1,609 as a sophomore. But perhaps his finest moment came last year versus Michigan when he rumbled for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 14-3 victory over the hated Wolverines.
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 8/1
If the Bulldogs are to live up to expectations, they'll need a huge effort from their sophomore running back. This might be the last year of college ball for Moreno, who rushed for 1,334 yards and for 14 touchdowns as a freshman, while adding 253 receiving yards on 20 receptions, so expect big things for the man from Belford, N.J.
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