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02/11/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The well-rested Pittsburgh Penguins hope a three-game homestand and the return of Jordan Staal can get them back on track today, as they'll try to avoid losing for the fourth time in five games when they host the Winnipeg Jets at Consol Energy Center.
The Penguins closed last month on a season-high eight-game winning streak, but they opened February with a 1-2-1 road trip. The club is now back home for three straight in the Steel City, where Pittsburgh has won four straight and is 15-7-2 this season.
Pittsburgh's recent lull has allowed New Jersey to move a point ahead of the Pens for third place in the Atlantic Division and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.
With Sidney Crosby still sidelined with his head and neck issues, the Penguins should be excited to get Staal back today for the first time since he suffered a knee injury back on Jan. 6. The centerman has 15 goals and six assists in 34 games this year and is one of Pittsburgh's best two-way forwards.
"I expect him to be used significantly in the game," Pens head coach Dan Bylsma told his team's web site about Staal's availability for today. "Maybe not quite totally to the 20-minute mark, but 15-plus minutes and on the second power play. Probably not 100 percent on the penalty kill. That may be a spot where other players may go in front of him where he normally would assume their ice time."
The Penguins last played on Tuesday in Montreal. The Canadiens posted a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh after Tomas Plekanec scored in the eighth round of the shootout. In the decisive round, Plekanec beat Marc-Andre Fleury to the glove side with a wrister and Carey Price sealed the win as he kept out a low forehand shot from Jason Williams.
Pascal Dupuis and James Neal scored for the Penguins, while Fleury posted 28 stops in the loss. Pittsburgh erased a pair of one-goal deficits in the third period to grab a point.
While Pittsburgh will try to get back in the win column today, the Jets will aim for their first three-game win streak since Dec. 27-31.
Winnipeg, which is three points behind Washington and Florida for first place in the Southeast, used a late comeback to shock the Capitals Thursday in D.C. and will try to build off that dramatic win this afternoon.
Bryan Little eventually scored the game-winner in the shootout in the 3-2 decision for the Jets, but that was after Winnipeg rallied from two goals down in the closing minutes of regulation. Trailing 2-0 with less than three minutes to play, Winnipeg got goals from Evander Kane and Dustin Byfuglien in a span of 12 seconds to force overtime.
The tying goal was nothing short of a fluke, as Byfuglien slapped a shot from center ice, which deflected off a Washington defender and awkwardly skipped over the shoulder of Caps goaltender Tomas Vokoun.
"We didn't really quit," said Byfuglien. "We stuck with it and we battled."
Thursday's comeback win improved Winnipeg's weak road record to 10-16-4 this season. After today, the Jets will play nine of their next 10 games at home, where they are 16-8-2.
The Pens have won five of six and 13 of the last 15 encounters with the Winnipeg/Atlanta franchise. Tonight marks the Jets' first trip to Pittsburgh since the club made the move to Manitoba in the offseason. The Thrashers had lost their last nine tests in the Steel City.
<< Spurs take Rodeo Road Trip to New Jersey
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Antonio will resume its annual Rodeo Road Trip on
Saturday in New Jersey by welcoming back Manu Ginobili to the lineup.
Ginobili, who has missed more than a month with a broken left hand, will
likely come off the bench
<< Love meets Linsanity at Target Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's time for New York's Jeremy Lin to experience a little
"Love" when the Knicks visit the Timberwolves on Saturday.
"Linsanity" was in full force Friday in Madison Square Garden when Lin
continued his unlikely rise from
<< Bruins host Preds in clash between struggling clubs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nashville Predators and Boston Bruins are trying not to
panic during their recent skids. The two clubs look to get right this
afternoon as the Predators visit the Bruins.
Though Nashville is 14-4-1 over its past 19 gam
<< Sixers try to right the ship in Cleveland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers will try to put the brakes on their
first losing streak of the season when they square off with a Cleveland team
that will be minus rookie star Kyrie Irving for a third consecutive game.
The Sixers c
25th-ranked Crimson set sights on Tigers >>
Princeton, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 25th-ranked Harvard Crimson will look to
add onto their best start in school history as they head to Jadwin Gym to take
on the dangerous Princeton Tigers in Ivy League action.
This will be the first of tw
High-flying Cardinals pay visit to struggling Mountaineers >>
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 24th-ranked Louisville Cardinals take
aim at their sixth straight win today, as they pay a visit to the West
Virginia Mountaineers in Big East Conference action.
Louisville is coming off an 80-59 rout of
Bearcats hope to clip wings of 18th-ranked Golden Eagles >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles will
try to keep pace in the race for the Big East Conference regular-season title,
as they entertain the Cincinnati Bearcats today at the Bradley Center in
Milwaukee.
'Canes and 'Noles duke it out in ACC action >>
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A battle of Sunshine State foes in the ACC
takes place in Tallahassee this afternoon, as the Miami-Florida Hurricanes do
battle with the 15th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
Miami comes in seeking its sixth
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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