Improved bench has Spurs ready to ride in watered-down West

Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's tough to write an obituary for a team that wins 61 games during the NBA's regular season but that didn't stop a number of my peers from declaring the aging San Antonio Spurs dead on arrival after they were exposed by a younger, far more athletic Memphis bunch in last season's Western Conference quarterfinals.

In fact, many believed the window had officially slammed shut on the Tim Duncan-era in the River City, at least when it comes to championships.

Fast forward to Wednesday night and the Spurs looked anything but done. Tony Parker was brilliant, exploding for 37 points to go along with eight assists as San Antonio held off the much-improved 76ers, 100-90.

"Tony Parker was amazing tonight to say the least," Sixers coach Doug Collins said after watching the French star torch his team. "He had that ball on a string, and we were just trying to do our best to keep him corralled, make him shoot jump shots and we just never could get him under control."

Duncan added a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds for San Antonio but it was Gregg Popovich's bench that really shined. Gary Neal made all four of his three-pointers and netted 18 points, while the emerging Tiago Splitter tortured Philadelphia inside, shooting 7-for-10 for 15 points.

In fact the Spurs' bench, lightly regarded before the season started, more than held it's own against the vaunted Sixers reserves that include two Sixth Men of the Year candidates -- Lou Williams and Thaddeus Young.

"Our history here is really bad so it's a huge win for us, Parker said. "We are going in the right direction. The young guys are improving. They are playing better on the road. They are playing with confidence."

It wasn't like the Spurs were going to turn into a lottery team overnight as long as Duncan and his long-time supporting cast of Parker and Manu Ginobili were still around. But, a lockout-shortened 66-game season short on off-days and practice time didn't figure to be the friend of any veteran group with significant mileage on its legs.

That said, here we are in the second week of February and San Antonio is at the top of the Southwest Division and among the top seeds in the conference after winning six straight and starting their annual Rodeo Road Trip at 2-0. And it's all been done without Ginobili, who has been gone for a little over a month with a broken left hand.

It's not often that losing an All-Star can help in the long run but Ginobili's absence along with Duncan's age has almost forced Popovich to integrate new blood into his lineup, most notably Splitter, Neal and rookie Kawhi Leonard.

"We felt [building a bench was necessary] with our guys getting a little older," Popovich said "We have shown confidence in them from the get-go, throw them out on the floor and let them see what it's like, and let them make mistakes. Get on them when necessary and love them when necessary."

Splitter, the former Euroleague star, has seen his numbers increase in every statistical category from his pedestrian rookie season. Through 27 games, the Brazilian is averaging 9.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, while shooting a team-best 62.3 percent from the field.

"He didn't develop anything with us," Popovich said when asked about Splitter's improvement. "He's always had it, he just didn't play last year. He's been doing what you saw tonight for I don't know, the last seven or eight years. That's who his is. He's just a blue-collar kind of guy that a coach loves. Fundamentally sound and balanced. He doesn't have a lot of skills but his basketball IQ is off the charts."

Leonard wasn't much in Philly on Wednesday but has more often that not provided the type of athleticism that has been lacking at times in San Antonio. Neal, meanwhile, helps space the floor with a sweet stroke.

"This is a world championship team and organization," Collins said. "Pop is a great coach. They string you out. They get you in pick-and-roll and put three- point shooters on the floor. Neal came in and really hurt us tonight."

The Spurs have now officially weathered the storm minus Ginobili, compiling a 15-7 mark without the Argentine star as he prepares to return to the lineup, perhaps this weekend in New Jersey.

"Before you know it, we will get Manu back and we can start rolling," Parker said.

The team's current trip could have been the type of roadblock to derail the season considering how the Spurs started away from the AT&T Center. But, after getting out of the gates at 0-5 as the visitor, San Antonio has now won five of seven away from South Texas.

Before the trip ends the Spurs will have visited nine different cities and traveled nearly 8,000 miles. When they arrive back in the Alamo City on Feb. 29, we should all know if the club is still a serious contender in what is shaping up as a watered-down West.

My guess is the Spurs have improved their depth enough to have one last rodeo in them come playoff time.

"Tony and Tim have been great in this stretch," Popovich said. "The bench has surprised us all. Those guys are playing really well for us and that's what is allowing us opportunities to win."

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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